Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in December 2008, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.
As CrisisWatch went to press, a series of diplomatic efforts were underway to secure a ceasefire between Israeli forces and Hamas, after an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza entered its third day. Israel launched a massive air raid on Gaza on 27 December after an intensification of Palestinian rocket fire into Israel and the expiration of a six-month ceasefire. The Israeli operation has killed hundreds of Palestinians, while retaliatory rocket fire by Hamas extended deep into Israel. Crisis Group’s report, Ending the War in Gaza, published today, provides full analysis of the situation, which threatens to escalate further.
In Guinea, the death of long-standing President Conté on 22 December was quickly followed by a military coup led by previously little-known Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, whose troops have since consolidated control over government and military command. The new leadership has pledged to work towards democratic elections and appointed a new civilian prime minister, but the coup raised fears of renewed regional instability.
The situation also deteriorated in Kashmir, where tensions between India and Pakistan continued to escalate in the wake of November attacks in Mumbai and alleged involvement by Pakistan-based militants. Pakistan reported airspace violations by Indian military jets and redeployed some troops to the Line of Control as the composite dialogue between the two countries was put on hold. Official rhetoric has however remained measured, and both sides also shared nuclear information in a rare goodwill gesture as the new year began. The situation also deteriorated further in December in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The situation improved in Bangladesh, where largely peaceful polls on 29 December saw some 70 per cent of those eligible participate after the government lifted the state of emergency. A new government is due to be sworn in on 6 January, bringing a return to civilian rule after two years under a military-backed caretaker government. And relations further warmed across the Taiwan Strait, as China and Taiwan signed new economic cooperation agreements and Chinese President Hu Jintao offered Chinese support for Taiwan’s membership of international organisations.
For January 2009, CrisisWatch identifies the situation in Somalia as both a Conflict Risk Alert and a Conflict Resolution Opportunity. The resignation of President Yusuf and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the country may further undermine stability and hasten the government’s collapse. But Yusuf’s departure, which followed international pressure on him to step down after he came to be regarded as an obstacle to peace, and the exit of Ethiopian troops may yet promote movement towards inclusive peace in the country.
The situation in the Central African Republic also presents a Conflict Resolution Opportunity, following a 20 December peace accord on formation of a new unity government, as does the situation in Burundi, where rebel group Palipehutu-FNL’s decision to drop its ethnic name may open the door for long-awaited progress on implementation of the 2006 peace deal.
A Conflict Risk Alert is also identified for the situation in Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories.
December 2008 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Israel/Occupied Palestnian Territories, Kashmir
Improved Situations
Bangladesh, Taiwan Strait
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain , Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire , Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe
January 2009 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alert
Israel/Occupied Palestnian Territories, Somalia
Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Burundi, Central African Republic, Somalia
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
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