domingo, 1 de fevereiro de 2009

CrisisWatch N°66, 1 February 2009

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and three improved in January 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

Hundreds of civilians were killed and more wounded in Sri Lanka, as government forces there made continued decisive gains against the LTTE rebels in the north of the island. An estimated 250,000 civilians remain trapped alongside LTTE fighters near the northern town of Mullaittivu. Israel intensified its military offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip with devastating consequences for the civilian population; a fragile ceasefire was declared by both sides on 18 January.

In Madagascar, up to 100 were killed in 2 days of violent anti-government protests on the streets of Antananarivo that came after weeks of tension between the leader of the opposition and President Ravolamanana. The situation also deteriorated in Mali, where clashes between the government and Tuareg rebels escalated, dealing a serious blow to an April 2008 ceasefire.

The situation improved in Zimbabwe, where after four months of political deadlock that followed a stalled power-sharing agreement, the opposition MDC agreed to form a government of national unity with President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF. The deal raised hopes that the country might be able to address a disastrous humanitarian situation and undertake pressing social and economic reforms. The situation also improved in Bangladesh, where a newly elected government was sworn in on 6 January, bringing an end to two years of a military-backed caretaker government, although local council elections this month were marred by irregularities and some violence.

For February, CrisisWatch highlights potential for both escalation and resolution of the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and in Sudan. In DRC, a joint operation with Rwanda to root out Rwandan Hutu FDLR rebels brought the promise of new regional cooperation in the east but raised fears of further civilian deaths. Crisis Group also viewed this as an improved situation in January.

In Sudan, an imminent decision by the ICC pre-trial chamber on whether to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir fuels increasing speculation over the response of different political forces, amidst ongoing intensification of violence in Darfur and threats of possible Darfur rebel attacks against cities and oil installations.

January 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Madagascar, Mali, Sri Lanka

Improved Situations
Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

February 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alerts
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan

Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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