CrisisWatch N°68, 1 April 2009

Nine conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in March 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

In Sudan, fears of a rapid deterioration of humanitarian conditions and security in Darfur mounted after Khartoum expelled 13 international aid organisations, following the International Criminal Court pre-trial chamber’s 4 March decision to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir for atrocity crimes. The UN estimates that up to 1.5 million are at risk of losing food, water and shelter, while tensions in the capital continue to rise as the government moves to brutally repress signs of pro-ICC support.

The situation continued to deteriorate in Sri Lanka, where intense fighting between government forces and the Tamil Tigers left hundreds dead and many more wounded. Some 150,000 civilians remain trapped in the violence, many in declared “safe zones” where shelling by government forces has continued. In North Korea, the government’s early-month announcement of its intention to launch a communications satellite in early April prompted outcry from regional states and the U.S. over the country’s nuclear ambitions, at the same time underscoring the urgent need for a calm, coordinated effort to bring Pyongyang back to the Six-Party Talks.

Guinea-Bissau entered a period of considerable political uncertainty after the early month assassination of the army chief and several senior officers, followed hours later by an attack on the presidential compound killing longstanding President Vieira. In Madagascar, former Antananarivo mayor Andry Rajoelina was installed as the country’s new president in defiance of the constitution after dissident troops overran the presidential palace, bringing thousands to the streets in protest. The situation also deteriorated in Kenya, which saw the murder of two prominent rights activists and growing strains within the fragile coalition government, as well as in the Central African Republic, Sierra Leone and Northern Ireland.

Hopes for stability in Burundi were raised as the former rebel group FNL began a long-awaited demobilisation process and, after some controversy, President Nkurunziza announced a new electoral commission welcomed by both government and opposition. The situation also improved in Guadeloupe, where a deal between union leaders and the government ended the general strike that saw demonstrations turn violent in February.

March 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, North Korea, Northern Ireland, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan

Improved Situations
Burundi, Guadeloupe

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Cameroon, Chad, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

April 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert

Conflict Resolution Opportunity

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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CrisisWatch N°66, 1 February 2009

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and three improved in January 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

Hundreds of civilians were killed and more wounded in Sri Lanka, as government forces there made continued decisive gains against the LTTE rebels in the north of the island. An estimated 250,000 civilians remain trapped alongside LTTE fighters near the northern town of Mullaittivu. Israel intensified its military offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip with devastating consequences for the civilian population; a fragile ceasefire was declared by both sides on 18 January.

In Madagascar, up to 100 were killed in 2 days of violent anti-government protests on the streets of Antananarivo that came after weeks of tension between the leader of the opposition and President Ravolamanana. The situation also deteriorated in Mali, where clashes between the government and Tuareg rebels escalated, dealing a serious blow to an April 2008 ceasefire.

The situation improved in Zimbabwe, where after four months of political deadlock that followed a stalled power-sharing agreement, the opposition MDC agreed to form a government of national unity with President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF. The deal raised hopes that the country might be able to address a disastrous humanitarian situation and undertake pressing social and economic reforms. The situation also improved in Bangladesh, where a newly elected government was sworn in on 6 January, bringing an end to two years of a military-backed caretaker government, although local council elections this month were marred by irregularities and some violence.

For February, CrisisWatch highlights potential for both escalation and resolution of the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and in Sudan. In DRC, a joint operation with Rwanda to root out Rwandan Hutu FDLR rebels brought the promise of new regional cooperation in the east but raised fears of further civilian deaths. Crisis Group also viewed this as an improved situation in January.

In Sudan, an imminent decision by the ICC pre-trial chamber on whether to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir fuels increasing speculation over the response of different political forces, amidst ongoing intensification of violence in Darfur and threats of possible Darfur rebel attacks against cities and oil installations.

January 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Madagascar, Mali, Sri Lanka

Improved Situations
Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

February 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alerts
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan

Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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CrisisWatch N°65, 5 January 2009

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in December 2008, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today. 

As CrisisWatch went to press, a series of diplomatic efforts were underway to secure a ceasefire between Israeli forces and Hamas, after an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza entered its third day. Israel launched a massive air raid on Gaza on 27 December after an intensification of Palestinian rocket fire into Israel and the expiration of a six-month ceasefire. The Israeli operation has killed hundreds of Palestinians, while retaliatory rocket fire by Hamas extended deep into Israel. Crisis Group’s report, Ending the War in Gaza, published today, provides full analysis of the situation, which threatens to escalate further.  

In Guinea, the death of long-standing President Conté on 22 December was quickly followed by a military coup led by previously little-known Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, whose troops have since consolidated control over government and military command. The new leadership has pledged to work towards democratic elections and appointed a new civilian prime minister, but the coup raised fears of renewed regional instability.

The situation also deteriorated in Kashmir, where tensions between India and Pakistan continued to escalate in the wake of November attacks in Mumbai and alleged involvement by Pakistan-based militants. Pakistan reported airspace violations by Indian military jets and redeployed some troops to the Line of Control as the composite dialogue between the two countries was put on hold. Official rhetoric has however remained measured, and both sides also shared nuclear information in a rare goodwill gesture as the new year began. The situation also deteriorated further in December in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The situation improved in Bangladesh, where largely peaceful polls on 29 December saw some 70 per cent of those eligible participate after the government lifted the state of emergency. A new government is due to be sworn in on 6 January, bringing a return to civilian rule after two years under a military-backed caretaker government. And relations further warmed across the Taiwan Strait, as China and Taiwan signed new economic cooperation agreements and Chinese President Hu Jintao offered Chinese support for Taiwan’s membership of international organisations.

For January 2009, CrisisWatch identifies the situation in Somalia as both a Conflict Risk Alert and a Conflict Resolution Opportunity. The resignation of President Yusuf and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the country may further undermine stability and hasten the government’s collapse. But Yusuf’s departure, which followed international pressure on him to step down after he came to be regarded as an obstacle to peace, and the exit of Ethiopian troops may yet promote movement towards inclusive peace in the country.

The situation in the Central African Republic also presents a Conflict Resolution Opportunity, following a 20 December peace accord on formation of a new unity government, as does the situation in Burundi, where rebel group Palipehutu-FNL’s decision to drop its ethnic name may open the door for long-awaited progress on implementation of the 2006 peace deal. 

A Conflict Risk Alert is also identified for the situation in Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories.

December 2008 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Israel/Occupied Palestnian Territories, Kashmir

Improved Situations
Bangladesh, Taiwan Strait

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain , Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire , Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

January 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert
Israel/Occupied Palestnian Territories, Somalia

Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Burundi, Central African Republic, Somalia

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database.