CrisisWatch N°68, 1 April 2009

Nine conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in March 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

In Sudan, fears of a rapid deterioration of humanitarian conditions and security in Darfur mounted after Khartoum expelled 13 international aid organisations, following the International Criminal Court pre-trial chamber’s 4 March decision to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir for atrocity crimes. The UN estimates that up to 1.5 million are at risk of losing food, water and shelter, while tensions in the capital continue to rise as the government moves to brutally repress signs of pro-ICC support.

The situation continued to deteriorate in Sri Lanka, where intense fighting between government forces and the Tamil Tigers left hundreds dead and many more wounded. Some 150,000 civilians remain trapped in the violence, many in declared “safe zones” where shelling by government forces has continued. In North Korea, the government’s early-month announcement of its intention to launch a communications satellite in early April prompted outcry from regional states and the U.S. over the country’s nuclear ambitions, at the same time underscoring the urgent need for a calm, coordinated effort to bring Pyongyang back to the Six-Party Talks.

Guinea-Bissau entered a period of considerable political uncertainty after the early month assassination of the army chief and several senior officers, followed hours later by an attack on the presidential compound killing longstanding President Vieira. In Madagascar, former Antananarivo mayor Andry Rajoelina was installed as the country’s new president in defiance of the constitution after dissident troops overran the presidential palace, bringing thousands to the streets in protest. The situation also deteriorated in Kenya, which saw the murder of two prominent rights activists and growing strains within the fragile coalition government, as well as in the Central African Republic, Sierra Leone and Northern Ireland.

Hopes for stability in Burundi were raised as the former rebel group FNL began a long-awaited demobilisation process and, after some controversy, President Nkurunziza announced a new electoral commission welcomed by both government and opposition. The situation also improved in Guadeloupe, where a deal between union leaders and the government ended the general strike that saw demonstrations turn violent in February.

March 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, North Korea, Northern Ireland, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan

Improved Situations
Burundi, Guadeloupe

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Cameroon, Chad, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

April 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert

Conflict Resolution Opportunity

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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