Four Essential Steps to the Copenhagen Agreement

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen this year will be the moment in history when humanity can rise to the challenge and decisively deal with the issue. It is beyond the shadow of a doubt that greenhouse gas emissions must be radically reduced to prevent climate change from sliding into climate chaos.

Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 30/03/2009 11:20

In 2007, in Bali, the 192 Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change committed themselves to launching negotiations on strengthened action against climate change. This process is to culminate in an ambitious negotiated outcome at the end of 2009, which needs to enter into force before January 2013.

This leaves just nine months to conclude one of the most complicated international negotiating processes in the world today. Last year, negotiators developed a better understanding of what they want from the different aspects of the action plan they agreed in Bali, and they gathered ideas and proposals. The political process has now reached a phase at which areas of convergence are emerging. These areas will form the basis of an initial draft agreement, to be presented in Bonn in June.

In order to enter into force around the world before 2013, the Copenhagen agreement must meet the political requirements of all participating countries. For this to happen, clarity on four key political points is needed this year.

First, clarity is needed on ambitious, legally binding emission-reduction targets for industrialized countries. Without such targets, the international community will not take the necessary action to address climate change, and developing countries will not have confidence that industrialized countries are willing to take the lead on solving a problem that they caused.

There are some positive signals in this direction. For example, the European Union has agreed to a climate and energy package with which it will be able to reach its target of a 20% emission reduction over 1990 levels by 2020 (30% if other industrialized countries follow suit. within the United States, President Barack Obama has indicated his intention to achieve an 80% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and to return US emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Other countries, such as Russia and Japan, will announce their mid-term targets in the course of this year.

Second, clarity is essential on the extent to which major developing countries can undertake nationally appropriate mitigation actions beyond what they are already doing. For many industrialized countries, particularly the US, it will be very difficult to conclude an agreement unless their citizens see that major developing countries are also willing to engage further.

A number of developing countries, such as China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, have already developed national climate change or energy strategies that indicate the extent to which they feel that they are able, given their economic constraints, to address the issue. Many developing countries are coming forward with ideas for further nationally appropriate mitigation measures that they could take.

Third, clarity is essential on financing. The magnitude of action by developing countries will largely depend on the effective delivery of finance and clean technology through international cooperative action. We need to know how significant financial resources will be generated to help developing countries both limit the growth of their emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.

Some interesting ideas have been floated. For example, industrialized countries have suggested auctioning emission rights and using part of the revenue for international cooperation – something that Germany is already doing. The concept also features in the Liebermann-Warner bill, an example of draft legislation on climate change for the US. Norway has put forward a proposal to monetize a portion of industrialized countries’ emissions budgets, generating revenue for international cooperation.

Emissions trading and market-based mechanisms will continue to play a role. However, the Bali action plan addresses the need for developing countries to adopt nationally appropriate mitigation actions. Because the carbon market cannot be the sole instrument, government-to-government cooperation will be needed as well.

Finally, clarity is essential on the governance structure under the convention. If significant financial resources are to be generated for mitigation and adaptation, developing countries will want a representative say in how that money is to be allocated and spent. The governance structures have to function according to democratic principles, founded on equity.

Many other important concerns will feature in this year’s intense negotiations. But clarity in these four areas will be essential for success at Copenhagen.

Yvo de Boer is Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The above commentary was published as part of an exclusive series of commentaries called "From Kyoto to Copenhagen", published by Project Syndicate, with cooperation from the Danish government.

LATEST ROUND OF UN TALKS ON PACT TO COMBAT GLOBAL WARMING WRAPS UP IN BONN

The latest round of United Nations talks aimed at reaching an ambitious new treaty on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions wrapped up today in Bonn, Germany, having achieved what the world body’s top climate change official called “important” progress.

“Countries have narrowed gaps in many practical areas, for example on how to strengthen action for adapting to the impacts of climate change,” said Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (<"http://unfccc.int/meetings/intersessional/bonn_09/items/4753.php">UNFCCC).

“This is important progress given the very limited time negotiators have to get to an agreed outcome in Copenhagen in December this year,” Mr. de Boer added, referring to the climate change conference at which countries are expected to adopt an agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, whose first commitment period for reducing greenhouse gas emissions ends in 2012.

More than 2,000 delegates from government, business and industry, environmental organizations and research institutions, participated in the Bonn meeting, which began on 29 March and is the first of three sessions planned ahead of the Copenhagen conference.

Negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions reductions to be achieved by industrialized countries after 2012 centred on issues related to the scale of the reductions, improvements to emissions trading and the Kyoto Protocol’s carbon offset mechanisms, as well as concerns relating to land-use change and forestry.

“There have been positive discussions on a range of issues, including on technology cooperation between industrialized and developing countries, as well as on the specificities of reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries,” noted Michael Zammit Cutajar, Chair of the Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA).

Mr. Cutajar added that countries have the opportunity to provide input to the draft for the negotiating text ahead of the next round of talks in June.

“I invite countries to forward their input to the climate change secretariat by 24 April 2009, so that their views on how to shape the text and what to include in the text can be incorporated,” he said.

Some 192 States have signed on to the UNFCCC, the parent treaty of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which has 184 parties and legally binds 37 highly industrialized nations and countries transitioning to a market economy to limit and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

The objective of both treaties is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Apr 8 2009 5:10PM

MAJOR NEGOTIATIONS FOR NEW UN CLIMATE CHANGE PACT KICK OFF IN GERMANY

The first round of United Nations-backed negotiations designed to culminate in an ambitious new international climate change treaty in Copenhagen in December got underway today.

More than 2,000 delegates from government, business and industry, environmental organizations and research institutions, have gathered in Bonn, Germany, for the first of a series of three sessions aimed at producing a draft document to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, whose first commitment period to reducing greenhouse gas emissions ends in 2012.

"This first negotiating session this year is critical for moving the world closer to a political solution to climate change," said Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

"The clock is ticking down and countries still have much work to cover," stressed Mr. de Boer at the start of the nine-day meeting.

Discussions on
greenhouse gas emissions reductions to be achieved by industrialized countries after 2012 will centre on issues relating to the scale of the reductions, improvements to emissions trading and the Kyoto Protocol''s carbon offset mechanisms, as well as concerns relating to land-use change and forestry.

"Industrialized countries are committed to lead the way, and the world is looking to them to agree on ambitious targets, in line with what science is telling us, in Copenhagen in December," said Harald Dovland, who chairs the working group leading the negotiations.

"We must lay the groundwork for this in Bonn at this session by shifting gears and moving into serious, in-depth negotiations," he added.

Who Holds the Key Card to Copenhagen?

For many of us in the climate profession today, Copenhagen feels like a show time when every party is expected to show their last card in hand and put all the oral commitments together for a new international process.

Changhua Wu, Greater China Director, The Climate Group 05/03/2009 14:50

For the developed world, it means real leadership and fulfillment of their due responsibility. And the developing countries, especially the large emerging economies, shall deliver the commitments laid out in the Bali Roadmap. A successful international process in Copenhagen will be key to setting global climate policy direction, thus to gearing our global economy towards a low carbon future.

This sounds simple, clear and even noble. And yet the reality tells a rather different story. At this very late stage, finger-pointing is still happening. Everyone expects others to take on more or at least comparable responsibilities. For a while, the general public, who do not necessarily follow closely the global climate process, get confused. The American voters, for instance, having been out of the Kyoto process for at least 8 years, feel strongly that large developing countries, like China and India, shall take on emissions cap, without which it does not make sense for the US to commit to target. The situation is getting more complicated by the occurrence of financial crisis and economic recession, let alone the fact that many American voters, particularly those from Mid-western states, have already believed that the Chinese and Indians have taken away their jobs. This has been clearly reflected in the US Congressional debates and discussions. Such kind of mentality does not help the US domestic legislation, neither the international negotiation process.

In this whole debate, you cannot help asking such a question: Who holds the key card to Copenhagen success? (This might not be a fair question since the climate framework shall be a consensus of all the 192 countries and regions. But around some key issues such as mitigation, the focus is on some largest parties.) EU has stated relatively clear cap target – 25% by 2020 over the 1990 level and EU has been in the international process since the beginning. Thus, the spotlight naturally falls on the US. President Obama’s statements before and after he took office shed light of hope on the Copenhagen process - the US new Administration seems determined to become a global leader on climate change rather than a dragger.

However, we all know that whether such political statements will be delivered in Copenhagen remains a daunting challenge. The US domestic legislation process and the political schedule don’t necessarily support the Copenhagen one. In about ten months’ time, it appears a mission impossible to bring all the American constituencies behind the President for a significant US commitment in Copenhagen.

The US legislation process should have been its own domestic matter. But somehow, China becomes a key factor in it. In 1997, the Byrd-Hagel Resolution clearly mentioned China as its excuse for not taking on commitments and targets. For those who are familiar with the history of US-China relations, it was not a surprise. Though the leading Democrats on the Hill have been advocating strongly that the US legislation on cap-and-trade be passed before the UN Conference, across the aisle, the Republicans are still holding tight their home-base position – if China and India do not make quantifiable commitments, they will not sign on to any system that “imposes restriction on the US economy.” An interesting but fair question would be: Have the potential restrictions on the Chinese and Indian economies ever been considered?

But if arguably the US holds a key card to the international process, then the US-China nexus is where a lot of efforts have to be made immediately. As suggested by many experts, better mutual understanding and respect shall be the first step to overcome the mistrust that has been interrupting the bilateral relations for decades. Then, the two countries shall seek common ground for collaboration and win-win opportunities. Both countries have been making impressive commitment and efforts in advancing green or clean technologies and industries that will lead to a new wave of economic growth. The currently debated US “stimulus package” contains ambitious targets and investment in energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy, aiming to use this opportunity to revive the US leadership in clean technologies such as batteries, Smart grid, building energy efficiency, solar PV and CCS. China’s already approved “stimulus package” sounds amazingly similar in both wording and focus. Government and business leaders from both countries shall use this critical moment to discuss how to work together and benefit each other.

Though in a market economy, competitiveness always exists and is necessary, the situation now is not that the two countries are competing for how big a piece each will get. Instead, if jointly and collaboratively, the two are actually, with others, drawing the pie and decide how big the future energy efficiency technology and clean energy technology market will be. This shall also become a foundation for the two countries’ political leaders to work together. If arguably the collaboration of energy and climate change is the most important bilateral relationship in the 21^st century in the world, Copenhagen process’ success signals a constructive first step.

From where I stand, what is happening in China is encouraging and also exciting. A strong and comprehensive low carbon policy and regulatory framework is gradually in place to drive the world’s largest developing country through a more efficient and cleaner energy economic revolution. The political will is the strongest ever to set this country on a solid foundation towards low carbon prosperity. This will tremendously benefit the global efforts in tackling climate change.

Back to the Copenhagen process, I am hopeful but also concerned. Many of the debates in EU and North America seem to forget about the existing international framework and foundation of “common but differentiated responsibility”. The UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol have to be the solid foundation for Copenhagen, without which it is like taking away the foundation while you are adding bricks to a building. The situation will be less complicated if developed countries come to Copenhagen by clearly stating what and how they will take their due leadership. If we believe in the influence of role model, then we could conclude that others will follow. Let’s stop the pressure game, instead, put in more constructive efforts towards Copenhagen. It is so crucial for now and also for generations to come.

Changhua Wu is the Greater China Director of The Climate Group.